Projections Based on Multiple Economic Recovery Scenarios Due to COVID-19
The Portland Cement Association (PCA) released its annual Fall Forecast which predicts a modest decrease in cement consumption during 2020 and 2021. PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption, based on the weighted average of three different economic scenarios, will lessen by 1.5% for the remainder of 2020 and 0.9% in 2021.
The forecast discusses three economic recovery scenarios. All scenarios are characterized by a significant increase in COVID-19 infections during the fourth quarter of 2020. The "U" shaped scenario would entail an increase in COVID-19 consistent with many baseline epidemiologist's projections. In this scenario, the economy achieves a gradual sustained recovery. 2021 cement consumption under this scenario nearly reaches 2020 levels.