I try to refrain from writing about the economy because I am not an economist and feel unqualified to make predictions about inflation, unemployment or the stock market. Sometimes, I think the professional economist is guessing, as well. I think a selection of people make good prognosticators of the future for our industry. They would be the construction executives at the highest level. These people are the CEOs of enormous construction firms and employ hundreds or have contracts in the millions of dollars. Their large companies rely on them being accurate at predicting the future. Hundreds of jobs, millions of dollars—and most of all—an unforgiving board of directors, will make them pay for getting it wrong. They spend time and have significant resources at their fingertips, making them better at predictions. So what do they say?
Construction executives have cooled their expectations about the foreseeable future of construction. This is primarily due to worries about price inflation and supply chain issues surrounding materials combined with persistent labor shortage concerns. The AGC reports 14 percent of these top executives felt a more prolonged and possibly deeper slowdown is likely on the horizon. While this appears to be bad news, those same executives also display optimism about rebounding down the road. There is a reason they feel this way and it is all about the numbers related to inflation.