I was recently introduced to a graph showing the number of LEED building registrations from its beginnings in 2000 through 2012, which was startling to say the least. The graph shows a modest increase in registrations over the first five years, a plateau in the sixth, a meteoric rise until 2009, and then a precipitous drop. For all the feel-good green press out there about green building certifications, I would have guessed this graph to show a solid, steady growth trend from the beginning. Instead, the graph shows the classic sharp rise and equally sharp decline that defines a fad.
Products fail or succeed depending on how well they do over the long haul. Products that rise quickly in popularity initially and then fade just as fast typically do not endure. This phenomenon is known as a fad. The Hula Hoop, Rubik’s Cube and Macarena are examples of fads. Trends, by contrast, take hold slowly and steadily until widely accepted and/or practiced and eventually become part of the cultural makeup of a society. Blue jeans (around for 150 years), cell phones, and vaccinations are examples of trends. The graph of a trend looks very different than that of a fad and easily discernible. Does the fad-like graph of LEED registrations predict the end of green building certifications? Why the big drop? The reasons are many.