Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth and a frequent voice on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business, told contractors at the 2025 GMS Expo in San Diego that stabilizing banks, labor shortages, housing pressures, political uncertainty, and the rise of artificial intelligence will define construction’s economic landscape this year.

Here are the key takeaways that matter most for construction professionals:

Regional Banks Show Signs of Recovery

The Good News: After the turmoil of 2023, regional banks—the primary lenders for multifamily and smaller commercial projects—are finally stabilizing.

Dawson noted that "lending standards have stopped getting worse, which is almost equivalent to them getting better." This improvement stems from the settling of the regional bank crisis and a deepening yield curve that helps bank profitability.

What This Means: The freeze in construction lending that has plagued contractors may be thawing. With potential bank mergers on the horizon and improved stability, access to project financing could gradually improve throughout 2025.

Labor Market Remains Tight Despite Immigration Policy Changes

Construction employment sits "near cycle highs" even as overall construction activity has declined, creating a paradox that benefits workers but challenges contractors. Dawson explained that immigration policy changes are reducing labor supply growth, which should drive wages higher across the construction sector.

The Reality Check: Contractors should prepare for continued wage pressure and labor shortages. The combination of reduced immigration and sustained demand means skilled workers will command premium wages, impacting project budgets and timelines.

Housing Market Faces Persistent Pressure from Institutional Buyers

Private equity firms are sitting on substantial "dry powder" that they need to deploy, and single-family homes remain an attractive target. This institutional buying power, combined with foreign investment, continues to keep home prices elevated and skews the rent-versus-buy equation heavily toward renting.

Industry Impact: The elevated housing market benefits contractors working in renovation and multi-family projects, as homeownership becomes increasingly unaffordable for many Americans. However, this also means residential construction may remain constrained by affordability challenges.

Political Uncertainty Creates Short-Term Headwinds

Beyond traditional lending constraints, Dawson identified political uncertainty as a significant factor dampening construction spending. "You've got to be confident if you're going to put all that money in the ground," she noted, explaining how policy uncertainty following recent political changes has contributed to the summer slowdown in construction activity.

Looking Forward: As political clarity improves, contractors may see renewed confidence from developers and property owners willing to move forward with previously delayed projects.

The AI Revolution's Long-Term Implications

While AI might seem distant from the construction trades, Dawson highlighted a concerning trend: unemployment among recent college graduates has reached near-financial crisis levels as AI displaces white-collar jobs. This could fundamentally reshape the economy and labor markets over the next decade.

Strategic Consideration: The construction industry's hands-on nature may provide some insulation from AI displacement, potentially making skilled trades even more valuable as other sectors face disruption.

Market Concentration Concerns Loom

Dawson warned that current market concentration levels mirror those seen in the late 1960s and early 2000s tech bubble, historically followed by 12-14 years of mediocre returns. This suggests the broader economy may face headwinds that could impact construction demand.