Economic Outlook

Economist Warns: U.S. Growth Needs Bold Action

At METALCON 2025, economist Alex Chausovsky warned U.S. leaders to embrace complexity and defend economic dominance.

Alex Chausovsky and metal framing — Photo: D R on Unsplash, METALCON/edited by Tanja Kern/Walls & Ceilings

QUICK READ: 3 Takeaways

The U.S. Economy Is Strong—but Vigilance Is Key: At $30 trillion and holding a 26% global GDP share, America’s economy leads—but Economist Alex Chausovsky warns its strength depends on resisting complacency and strategic drift.
No Recession Ahead, Just Flat Terrain: Despite negative sentiment, Chausovsky clarified that the U.S. is not in a recession, nor headed for one. CEOs should focus on protecting profits and preparing for a flat 2026.
Act, Don’t Wait—Complexity Demands Strategy: To thrive in 2026, businesses should retain talent, adjust prices or market share, and increase communication with suppliers. Inaction, he says, is the greatest risk.

Economist Alex Chausovsky of The Bundy Group took the keynote stage at METALCON 2025 with a clear message: America’s economy is strong, but complacency is its biggest risk.

From global trade to workforce strategy, he urged industry leaders to adapt boldly, invest smartly, and prepare now to maintain long-term momentum amid rising global complexity.

“We’ve been through similar challenges before,” Chausovsky said, referencing the pandemic era. “Now, we can project with confidence that we will figure this out. We can do this together. We have the mindset to get it done.”

Chausovsky underscored the continued dominance of the U.S. economy, noting that at $30 trillion, it represents more than a quarter of global GDP and remains one-third larger than China’s $20 trillion economy. “We are not going to be overtaken with our economy,” he said, adding that even New York and parts of New Jersey together exceed Russia’s $2.2 trillion economy.

He highlighted that since 1980, the U.S. has maintained a consistent 26% share of global GDP, reinforcing the nation’s enduring economic influence. However, he cautioned that the U.S. must ensure its global partners do not gain competitive ground—a sentiment aligned with the current Trump administration’s policy goals.

“Our biggest vulnerability is our allies," Chausovsky said. The concern is that our allies are being pushed closer to our adversaries—closer to China and Russia.

Global Trade, Tariffs, and Economic Trends

Chausovsky discussed Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) as a key factor in understanding China’s internal advantage—its ability to afford more goods and services with the same amount of money. He cautioned that, unless we act strategically, China’s production capacity will continue to outpace ours.

He also addressed trade relations with Canada and ongoing tariff impacts, clarifying misconceptions about an impending recession: “We are not in a recession; we are not even headed towards one."

According to Chausovsky, while 37% of tariffs have been passed to U.S. consumers, 9% have been absorbed by companies. The overall economic impact, he said, remains limited, with tariffs typically taking 12–18 months to fully register.

Looking Ahead: 2026 and Beyond

Chausovsky forecasted a flat economy for 2026, with minimal growth expected due to restrictive interest rates. He added, pessimism among CEOs is equal to that seen during COVID and has persisted since April 2—reflecting no growth and no contraction.

“You want to be conservative and tighten the belt,” he advised. “Unless we can get out of our own way, it will tread.”

“The key takeaway for 2026 is to maintain profitability and make sure you have money to reinvest into the business,” he said. “What can you do? Increase prices or increase your market share.”

He also cited the importance of legal immigration to sustain the labor force, warning that without progress, workforce shortages could begin as early as 2027.

Closing his address, Chausovsky reiterated his core message for the metal construction industry: while today’s economic landscape is complex, waiting on the sidelines is not an option. He acknowledged concerns that tariffs could push the economy toward recession but affirmed that this is not the case. Instead, he urged industry professionals to stay informed, remain agile and position their businesses to succeed amid evolving market dynamics.

The outlook may be complex, but it remains one that the industry is fully capable of navigating—momentum that will continue as the conversation moves forward at METALCON 2026.

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Tanja Kern covers economic trends and the intersection of architecture, design, and construction for Walls & Ceilings, with an emphasis on the forces reshaping the industry. She develops and amplifies content that connects construction professionals with the intelligence they need to compete and grow.

With more than 20 years of experience, Tanja has written for national business, consumer and trade publications. She holds a Master of Science in magazine publishing from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. She can be reached at kernt@bnpmedia.com.