Bob Treadway, a longtime advisor on forecasting and strategy who has worked with organizations ranging from Gillette to Berkshire Hathaway divisions, returned to the 2026 CISCA Summit in Grapevine, Texas, for his 18th year delivering an economic outlook to the association, with a familiar message—expect uncertainty, and plan for it. As he put it, “I don’t predict—I forecast with a range of probability, a cone of relative certainty.”

Here are the key takeaways for ceiling contractors:

1. Uncertainty is high—and not going away soon
Treadway stressed that today’s environment is defined by overlapping risks, from geopolitical tensions to policy gridlock. “This is some of the greatest uncertainty that we’ve seen,” he said. Economic growth expectations are softening, and some economists see recession risk as high as 50% within the next year. For contractors, that means planning for multiple scenarios rather than relying on a single outlook.

2. Inflation could reaccelerate, squeezing margins
While inflation had been moderating, Treadway warned it could climb again—potentially to 6–7% under prolonged global conflict. That would directly impact material costs, bidding accuracy and profitability, making cost control and escalation planning critical.

3. The economy is split—and that affects construction demand
Higher-income households remain resilient, but lower-income consumers are under pressure, with credit card debt now exceeding $1.2 trillion. “Does that sound like a ticking time bomb to you?” Treadway said, pointing to growing financial strain. That divide could influence which types of projects move forward—and who ultimately occupies the buildings contractors are working on.

4. Labor challenges are shifting, not easing
Workforce demand remains volatile, with hundreds of thousands of new workers needed annually. At the same time, immigration slowdowns, reduced geographic mobility and demographic changes are tightening supply. “People are frozen,” Treadway said, describing historically low relocation rates. He urged contractors to broaden recruiting strategies: “You’ve got to look at the full spectrum of people that you might want to hire.”

5. Productivity and technology adoption are becoming critical
Construction continues to lag other industries in productivity, putting pressure on contractors to modernize. “There are tools available… where I think you really want to lean into it,” Treadway said, pointing to AI and digital solutions. These tools may be especially important for smaller firms competing with larger, better-resourced players.